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University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a preliminary May level of 67.4, down from 77.2 in April; consumers expressed worries about inflation, unemployment and interest rates

May 13, 2024 (press release) –

Preliminary Results for May 2024

  May Apr May M-M Y-Y
  2024 2024 2023 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 67.4 77.2 59.0 -12.7% +14.2%
Current Economic Conditions 68.8 79.0 65.1 -12.9% +5.7%
Index of Consumer Expectations 66.5 76.0 55.1 -12.5% +20.7%

 

Sources of Economic News and Information for Consumers (May 3, 2024)
Next data release: Friday, May 24, 2024 for Final May data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and education groups. Consumers in western states exhibited a particularly steep drop. While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions. They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% last month to 3.5% this month, remaining above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up, from 3.0% last month to 3.1% this month. Although they have been within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 30 of the last 34 months, long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

All of these patterns are visible when looking at trends within phone interviews alone or web interviews alone, and thus they are not an artifact of the survey’s methodological transition.

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